Sell, sell and book profit !!

A full week of trading without much progress in either direction for the BSE Sensex. The chart pattern is tantalisingly poised and may move either way. Let us first take a look at the 6 months bar chart pattern of the BSE Sensex index:-

The Sensex broke above the trend line connecting the tops of the rising wedge pattern almost a month back but has continued to move sideways, and has failed to cross the previous high of 17200. Last week the index alternated between lower and higher closes, and is now resting on the trend line. As we will see in the 3 months bar chart pattern of the BSE Sensex, the index is also resting on the 20 day EMA, which has provided good support to recent corrections.

While there is a possibility of the Sensex moving up again – particularly if the FIIs start pouring in money, the chances of a break downwards is increasing. As the three EMAs are still merrily moving up, the distance between the 50 day EMA and 200 day EMA has increased more than 2000 points. This indicates a likely correction in the near future.

The technical indicators are all looking bearish. The RSI, MFI, Aroon, MACD and slow stochastic are all in the positive zone but are moving down steadily. Most importantly in the shorter term, market sentiments seem to be turning bearish, as good news (like the Reliance Industries 1:1 bonus after 12 years, and the Q209 results of Infosys that turned out better than consensus estimates) failed to produce any buying interest.

Watch out for a downward break below the lower trend line joining the bottoms of the rising wedge pattern. That may start an ‘end run’ that could lead to a sharp correction. The rising wedge pattern is quite bearish and is usually followed by a sharp downward break.

Bull markets climb a wall or worry, and a large inflow of liquidity can nullify all technical analysis – as has happened a few times during this bull rally. So avoid shorting the market.

Bottomline? The chart pattern of the BSE Sensex index is poised at a crucial support level. Stay on the sidelines and watch the unfolding battle between the bulls and bears. Keep tight stop-losses and book partial profits at every opportunity.

What goes around comes around

His   name was Fleming, and he was a poor Scottish farmer.   One day, while trying to make a living for his family, he heard a cry for help coming from a nearby bog.  He dropped his tools and ran to the bog.

There,   mired to his waist in black muck, was a terrified boy,   screaming and struggling to free himself. Farmer   fleming saved the lad from what could have been a slow   and terrifying death.

The next day, a fancy carriage pulled up to the Scotsman’s sparse surroundings. An elegantly dressed nobleman stepped out and introduced himself as the father of the boy Farmer Fleming had saved.

‘I want to repay you,’ said the nobleman. ‘You saved my son’s life.’

‘No, I can’t accept payment for what I did,’ the Scottish farmer replied waving off the offer. At that moment, the farmer’s own son came to the door of the family hovel.

‘Is that your son?’ the nobleman asked.

‘Yes,’   the farmer replied proudly.

‘I’ll   make you a deal. Let me provide him with the level of   education my own son will enjoy if the lad is anything like his father, he’ll no doubt grow to be a man we both will be proud of.’ And that he did.

Farmer   Fleming’s  son attended the very best schools and  in  time, graduated from St. Mary’s  Hospital  Medical  School in London, and went on to become known  throughout   the world as the noted Sir Alexander  Fleming, the  discoverer of Penicillin.

Years afterward, the same nobleman’s son who was saved from the bog was stricken with pneumonia.

What   saved his life this time?   Penicillin.

The name of the nobleman? Lord Randolph Churchill… His son’s name?

Sir Winston Churchill.

Someone   once said: What goes around comes around.

Work like you don’t need the money.

Love like you’ve never been hurt.

Dance like nobody’s watching.

Sing like nobody’s listening.

Live like its Heaven on Earth.

Pass this on, and brighten some one’s day.

May   there always be work for your hands to   do;

May your purse always hold a coin or two;

May the sun always shine on your windowpane;

May a rainbow be certain to follow each   rain;

May the hand of a friend always be near you;

May God fill your heart with gladness to cheer   you.

Dark Horse in Oil Exploration. Interlink Petroleum Ltd. (Rs. 36/-)

Rationale for Recommendation:
A.    IPL has rights to develop 2 oil fields in Gujarat.
B.    Market Cap of IPL is just Rs. 66 crs. as against 4200 cr. market cap of HOEL and 420 crs. market cap of Selan.
C.    IPL has been bought over by JIT SUN, Singapore and promoter’s stake is nearly 70%.
D.    Crude prices have started recovering which bodes well for IPL and it can be a potential take over target.

Background:
Incorporated in 1993, IPL is engaged in the business of Oil & Gas Exploration activities.  Following the opening up of Hydro Carbon Sector by Government of India to attract private investment, IPL was amongst the first few private sector companies to be awarded the rights to develop Baola Field in Gujarat.  Production Sharing Contract for Baola was signed in 1995.  This was followed, in 2001, by award and signing of PSE for Modhera Field, also located in Gujarat. Both the fields are located in the Petroliferous Cambay Basin which has excellent infrastructure and are in close proximity to the local market for Oil & Gas.

Baola Field has 2 wells (Baola 1 and Baola 5).  Upon grant of permission to produce in 2001, IPL started production of gas @ 12000 Standard Cubic Meter from Baola Well 1 and supplied gas to the consumers in the local area.  Mining lease for the field was granted in 2004. However, production had to be suspended due to ingress of water in the well by end of 2004.

Financial Performance: Rs. In Crs.

	2008 – 2009	2007 – 2008
Total Income	0.67	1.22
Net Loss	1.89	1.38
Equity	18.41	8.10
Reserves	6.92

Since production is yet to start, IPL did not had any sales revenues and incurred losses due to expenses made for hiring personnel and creating infrastructure.  However, during the year, Company’s control and management underwent  a big change.  IPL has been bought over by JIT SUN of Singapore, an investment arm of Zurong Group.  New promoters are well known group in oil asset management and have clients like Exxon and Chevron in West and China Petroleum in the East.  Oil fields of IPL are adjacent to HOEC and have potential of 12,000 BOPD from each block which will be significantly higher than HOEL.  JIT SUN hold 69.77% Equity of IPL (through preferential offer and open market offer).

Future Outlook:
1.    Modhera Oil Field:  New Management has obtained mining lease for Modhera Oil Field which is also located in the same Cambay Basin as Baola Field, the production sharing agreement for which was signed in the Year 2001 and has taken over the field in February 2009.  IPL has decided to develop Modhera Field by acquiring Seismic data and drilling new wells.  Production from Modhera Field is expected to start in 2011.

2.    Baola Field:  ONGC had dug 6 wells in this field of which 2 wells were operational till 4 years ago.  Subsequently, production had stopped due to water ingress.  IPL has decided to acquire fresh Seismic data for Baola Field which is expected by November 2009.  Results of Seismic data will enable IPL to locate and drill new wells in the fields subsequently.  Production from the same should start in 2010-11.  GSPL and GAIL have already come forward with offers to lift the gas once field becomes operational.

IPL was also awarded one small block in NELP VII Round but Company decided to focus and develop existing assets and did not sign PSE for this block.

Valuations and Recommendation:
IPL’s Operations will start generating revenues only from 2010-11.  However, scrip appears a good buy for medium and long term considering the following:

1.  Crude prices are unlikely to come down and may rather go up due to recovery of global economy.  Hence, IPL should have huge profit margins in 2011 and beyond.

2.   New promoters hold 69.77% stake.

3.   In 2008-09, HOEL had revenues of just Rs. 98 crs. but market cap is Rs. 4200 crs.  Similarly, Selan has market cap of Rs. 420 crs. although revenues are under 100 crs. On the other hand, IPL market cap is just Rs. 66 crs. despite the fact that its Oil fields are adjacent/next to HOEL and IPL Oil Fields may have much much higher/bigger oil reserves.  New promoters have started working in the right earnest and aggressively.

4.   Mr. Bora (Ex-CMD of ONGC) has become Chairman of IPLunder whose leadership IPL can reach new heights.

Once Seismic data are received and drilling for wells starts in early 2010, share price of IPL can witness huge jump.  There are rumours in the market that IPL may become acquisition target by a big Industrial House.  Investors with patience having medium/long term perspective can buy big quantity for multibagger gains.

Share price can be Rs. 60-70 in 6-9 months.  Don’t be surprised if scrip crosses Rs. 200/- in 2011.

Market Talk – 03/10/2009

Market march is on though most of them are pessimistic. Market is making traders tiring as traders have lost patience and they want returns same day. Market knows it and using rotation theory. Traders sold IDBI and IDBI fired. IDFC we started with 127 made one top of 146 allowed traders to exit thereafter it made them tire between 140 and 150 range and today suddenly it is out of woods. Same thing we have noticed in Larsen Reliance and GLT Infra. RNRL and R Power in the same boat. Ispat a clear turnaround stock with OTS in place which will match the losses of Q1, inventory gains and renewal of contracts at high prices will spark Q2 and with renewed interest in any steel Ispat is set to change its name to IS PAR… You must understand the market philosophy. It just wants the traders to stay invested for sizable period of time to earn some profits. Very rarely the intra day tips work. Traders keep on changing stocks and what they buy goes down and what they sell goes up. Therefore the loyalty factor has to be kept in mind. One thing you have seen is that Nifty O I has been showing continuous rise which is an indication of fresh built up of short in anticipation of correction. This trend we have been seeing since 4400 and Nifty has already close t0 5100. Now where would you stop saying that the Bull Run is on…? Bears would not agree as they feel that at 17000 market are expensive and liquidity cannot drive for long. My opinion is otherwise. Govt has set targets of few IPO in March 10 which is post Budget which is a fair indication of further rally. This IPO are possible only if the Budget 10 is good. Budget 10 could be good only if the revenue for 09-10 exceed target by wide margin and deficit drops down to 5%. This all seems dream nos especially when FM and finance man and not opening up their mind clearly. With 15 bn usd QIP and fund raising and another 10 bn usd in the pipeline, there is no ambiguity in my mind about the revenue collection and the targets. It is very simply arithmetic. For every Re 1 raised we generally contribute 78 paise to the exchequer in the form of various taxes. This 25 bn funds churning is a big exercise for Govt for revenue collection. In fact, now each and every sector attracts service tax which is 12% and this 25 bn usd which is expected to go in capex cannot escape this tax apart from all other taxes. Apart from this, 32 bn capex is planned by Posco and Mittal alone which will add huge number game for tax collection. In short, there is no end of pessimism though we need to have basic thinking to know why markets could test new high before budget. Just not liquidity, it is fundamentals which are driving markets and whole world will realise this at the time of Budget 2010. You have every right the take negative call and sell short. But the fact remains, 2009 was never a year of bears and those who tried to go against the wind have seen themselves evaporated. My friends who were advocating 2500 and 900 Nifty are now a day vanished and I don’t know what their current status is. If they are still bearish I wish all the best to them and God may give courage to them. At Cni, all the followers have made decent return in market. Rs 60 lacs profit on one lot each in 8 months speaks about the Cni performance. Our best bets now are Ispat, IDBI, IFCI, IDFC, Idea and Larsen apart from RIL and SBI.

Multiple login in Yahoo messenger from same computer !!

Yes it is possible.

This is a little, very simple trick with not additional patches or any third party tools involved. A simple tweak to your registry will do the trick and I will show you how.

1. First up, open your Registry Editor (Run… > “regedit”)
2. Go to HKEY_CURRENT_USER > Software > Yahoo > pager >Test
3. You need to add a new key. Right click, select DWORD Value and rename it to “Plural”.
4. Now, open the value of this new key by double clicking it. Set the Value data to 1 and select Decimal for Base.
5. And you are done! Close Registry Editor and restart Yahoo! Messenger.

[Editing Yahoo Messenger registry to enable multiple login]

To sign in with another Yahoo! ID, simply launch another Yahoo! Messenger.

It is that simple!

Banking: The Next Crises & The Ignorance of the Economic Establishment

Rajib Handa

In over six decades post India’s independence from the British I never recall Repo rates dropping down to 2 per cent and peak rates on 5 year unsecured bank deposits to 7 per cent. Compared to a CPI of 12 per cent banks are now offering negative returns of 5 per cent per annum to depositors, while throwing money at near bankrupt Real Estate concerns at artificially induced low interest rates. The CAPM pricing theory propounded by Nobel laureates Muller and Modigliani professed that the only difference between debt and equity was the tax. So why do investors expect ROEs of 20 per cent on Equity but are willing to settle for 2 per cent income on deposits? If this is not laying the seeds of a gargantuan Real Estate Asset Bubble and everything else connected with it, then what else is it? The repercussions of easy money will be felt over a number of years, but the disaster will strike investors in many forms. So Brace yourself up. It’s easy to understand how loose monetary policy causes inflation and/or speculative bubbles. But the economic establishment in Washington, on Wall Street, and more or less all over the world refuses to acknowledge the cause and effect relationship! They insist on Keynesian theories of macro managing the economy mainly by monetary and fiscal policies, thereby rapidly increasing the government’s influence. Their models and theories totally missed the importance of the real estate bubble and its aftermath … the most severe crisis since the Great Depression. And they were incapable of forecasting the meltdown of the banking system. It should be clear that following the wrong models and theories leads to the wrong conclusions and wrong policies. And that’s exactly what’s going on today. The policy prescriptions since this crisis erupted are the very same that laid the foundation for the real estate bubble. So the toxin that caused the crisis is being given as the antidote! This has led to a postponement of the next stage of the current crisis. Yet if governments keep throwing trillions down these rat holes, we’ll end up with a financial and economic catastrophe much larger than the current one. So although I suggest you take a bullish medium-term view, you should remain very bearish about the long-term. Remember … Secular Bear Markets Consist of Cyclical Swings I believe that the stock market and the economy entered a secular bear market in 2000 when the technology bubble burst. The first recession took place in 2001, and the first cyclical stock bear market ran from 2000 until 2002/03. That’s when governments all over the world implemented extremely easy monetary and fiscal policies. Their strategy worked … the recession stopped in its tracks. But it came at a very high price … starting a real estate bubble. This artificial and unsound boom lasted until 2007. Then the bubble burst and all hell broke loose! And the second recession and the second cyclical stock bear market began. Again governments stepped in, but to a much larger degree than in 2001-2004. And, for now at least, they’ve rescued the banking system by bailing out nearly all big banks and initiated a medium-term uptrend in the world’s stock markets. The long-term analysis is simple and easy: With each round of counter crisis policy, governments are upping the ante. So each crisis is getting more expensive and more damaging than its predecessor. The severity of the 2007/08 crisis should make it clear what an even worse version could look like: The total collapse of the banking system and of the world’s dollar-based financial system, probably including the bankruptcy of some states. Even hyperinflation seems to be a probable outcome of these policies.

Logical thoughts

The door bell or your mobile will always ring when you are in the bathroom.

 

After a long wait for bus no.20, two 20 number buses will always pull in together and the bus which you get in will be crowded than the other.

 

If your exam is tomorrow, there will be a power cut tonight.

 

Irrespective of the direction of the wind, the smoke from the cigarette will always tend to go to the non-smoker

 

Before borrowing money from a friend, decide whether you need more.

 

There are three sides to every argument: your side, my side and the right side.

 

An expert is someone who takes a subject you understand and makes it sound confusing.

 

Many things can be preserved in alcohol. Dignity is not one of them.

 

Never argue with a fool. People might not know the difference.

 

When you’re right, no one remembers. When you’re wrong, no one forgets.

 

Always remember that you are absolutely unique. Just like everyone else.

 

Well done is better than well said .

 

Everyone makes mistakes. The trick is to make them when nobody is looking.

 

Where there is a WILL, there is a WAY, Where there is MONEY, there are many WAYS.

 

Where there is MONEY, there are many FRIENDS and RELATIVES.

Everybody wants to go to heaven, but nobody wants to die.

How our inner Ego sometimes misjudges a person

A lady in a faded grey dress and her husband, dressed in a home-spun suit walked in timidly without an appointment into the Harvard University President’s outer office. The secretary could tell in a moment that such backwoods, country hicks had no business at Harvard and probably didn’t even deserve to be in Harvard.

“We want to see the President “the ma n said softly.

“He’ll be busy all day “the secretary snapped.

“We’ll wait” the lady replied.

For hours the secretary ignored them, hoping that the couple would finally become discouraged and go away. They didn’t and the secretary grew frustrated and finally decided to disturb the president..

“Maybe if you see them for a few minutes, they’ll leave” she said to him. The President, stern faced and with dignity, strutted toward the couple.

The lady told him “We had a son who attended Harvard for one y ear. He loved Harvard. He was happy here. But about a year ago, he was accidentally killed. My husband and I would like to erect a memorial to him, somewhere on campus.”

The president wasn’t touched….He was shocked. “Madam “he said, gruffly, ” we can’t put up a statue for every person who attended Harvard and died. If we did, this place would look like a cemetery.”

“Oh, no,” the lady explained quickly” We don’t want to erect a statue. We thought we would like to give a building to Harvard.”

The president rolled his eyes. He glanced at the gingham dress and homespun suit, and then exclaimed, “A building! Do you have any earthly idea how much a building costs? We have over seven and a half million dollars in the physical buildings here at Harvard.”

For a moment the lady was silent. The president was pleased. Maybe he could get rid of them now.. The lady turned to her husband and said quietly, “Is that all it costs to start a university ? Why don’t we just start our own?”

Her husband nodded. The president’s face wilted in confusion and bewilderment. Mr. and Mrs. Leland Stanford got up and walked away, traveling to Palo Alto, California where they established the University that bears their name: -StanfordUniversity, a memorial to a son that Harvard no longer cared about.

Most of the time we judge people by their outer appearance, which can be misleading. And in this impression, we tend to treat people badly by thinking they can do nothing for us. Thus we tend to lose our potential good friends, employees or customers.

Remember

In our Life, we seldom get people with whom we want to share & grow our thought process. But because of our inner EGO we miss them forever.

It is you who have to decide with whom you are getting associated in day to day life.

Small people talk about others,

Average people talk about things,

Great people talk about ideas

Worlds’ greatest paradox

Many years ago, a Law teacher came across a student who was willing to learn but was unable to pay the fees. The student struck a deal saying, “I will pay your fee the day I win my first case in the court”.

Teacher agreed and proceeded with the law course. When the course was finished and teacher started pestering the student to pay up the fee, the student reminded him of the deal and pushed days.

Fed up with this, the teacher decided to sue the student in the court of law and both of them decided to argue for themselves.

The teacher put forward his argument saying: “If I win this case, as per the court of law, the student has to pay me as the case is about his non-payment of dues. And if I lose the case, student will still pay me because he would have won his first case. So either way I will have to get the money”.

Equally brilliant, the student argued back saying: “If I win the case, as per the decision/verdict of court of law, I don’t have to pay anything to the teacher as the case is about my non-payment of dues. And if I lose the case, I
don’t have to pay him because I haven’t won my first case yet. So either way, I am not going to pay the teacher anything”.

This is one of the greatest paradoxes ever recorded in history…

Start your day with a smile…..

Doctor to patient: You will die within 2 hours. Do you want to see any one before you die?
Patient: Yes. A good doctor..
 
Sardar: My mobile bill how much?
Call centre girl: sir, just dial 123to know current bill status
Sardar: Stupid, not CURRENT BILL my MOBILE BILL.
  
Q: How do you make a sardarji laugh on Saturday?
A: Tell him a joke on Wednesday.
  
Wife-Oye ji, Sunte Ho,Utho Utho,Raat ke 2 baje he.
Husband- itni rat ko Q…Uthaya Mujhe?????
Wife-Aap neend ki goli Lena to bhul Hi gaye..!
 
Interviewer>To bataiye PANI ke bina Insan kaise Marega?
Sardar>PANI nai hoga to Insan Tairega kaise? Aur Tairega nahi to doob jayega!
 
Sardar: I think that girl is deaf..
Friend: How do u know?
Sardar: I told I Love her, but she said her chappals are new
  
Friend: I got a brand new Ford IKON for my wife!
Sardar: Wow!!! That’s an unbelievable exchange offer!!!
 
Teacher: Which is the oldest animal in world?
Sardar: ZEBRA
Teacher: How?
Sardar: Bcoz it is Black & White

Judge: Don’t U have shame? It is d 3rd time U R coming to court..
Sardar to judge: U R coming daily, don’t U have shame?
 
Question: “Should Women have Children after 35?”
Smart Sardar Replied: “No!
35 Children R More than Enough!!”

Sardar attending an interview in Software Company.
Manager: Do U know MS Office?
Sardar: If U give me the address I will go there sir.
 
Sardar got a sms from his girl friend: “I MISS YOU”
Sardarji replied: “I Mr YOU” !!.
  
After finishing MBBS Sardar started his practice. He Checked 1st Patient’s Eyes, Tongue & Ears By Torch & Finallly Said: “Torch is okay”
 
Sardar1: Oye, what will happen if electricity is not discovered?
Sardar2: Nothing, we must watch TV in candle light.
 
Sardar in airplane going 2 Bombay .. While its landing he shouted: ” Bombay … Bombay “
Air hostess said: “B silent.”
Sardar: “Ok.. Ombay. Ombay”

Teacher: “What is common between JESUS, KRISHNA , RAM, GANDHI and BUDHA?”
Sardar: “All are born on government holidays…!!!
 
Sardar: Miss, Do u called 2 my mobile?
Teacher: Me? No, why?
Sardar: Yesterday I saw in my mobile… 1 Miss Call”.

 

Sir: What is difference between Orange and Apple?
Sardar: Color of Orange is orange, but color of Apple is not APPLE