Sell, sell and book profit !!

A full week of trading without much progress in either direction for the BSE Sensex. The chart pattern is tantalisingly poised and may move either way. Let us first take a look at the 6 months bar chart pattern of the BSE Sensex index:-

The Sensex broke above the trend line connecting the tops of the rising wedge pattern almost a month back but has continued to move sideways, and has failed to cross the previous high of 17200. Last week the index alternated between lower and higher closes, and is now resting on the trend line. As we will see in the 3 months bar chart pattern of the BSE Sensex, the index is also resting on the 20 day EMA, which has provided good support to recent corrections.

While there is a possibility of the Sensex moving up again – particularly if the FIIs start pouring in money, the chances of a break downwards is increasing. As the three EMAs are still merrily moving up, the distance between the 50 day EMA and 200 day EMA has increased more than 2000 points. This indicates a likely correction in the near future.

The technical indicators are all looking bearish. The RSI, MFI, Aroon, MACD and slow stochastic are all in the positive zone but are moving down steadily. Most importantly in the shorter term, market sentiments seem to be turning bearish, as good news (like the Reliance Industries 1:1 bonus after 12 years, and the Q209 results of Infosys that turned out better than consensus estimates) failed to produce any buying interest.

Watch out for a downward break below the lower trend line joining the bottoms of the rising wedge pattern. That may start an ‘end run’ that could lead to a sharp correction. The rising wedge pattern is quite bearish and is usually followed by a sharp downward break.

Bull markets climb a wall or worry, and a large inflow of liquidity can nullify all technical analysis – as has happened a few times during this bull rally. So avoid shorting the market.

Bottomline? The chart pattern of the BSE Sensex index is poised at a crucial support level. Stay on the sidelines and watch the unfolding battle between the bulls and bears. Keep tight stop-losses and book partial profits at every opportunity.

Dark Horse in Oil Exploration. Interlink Petroleum Ltd. (Rs. 36/-)

Rationale for Recommendation:
A.    IPL has rights to develop 2 oil fields in Gujarat.
B.    Market Cap of IPL is just Rs. 66 crs. as against 4200 cr. market cap of HOEL and 420 crs. market cap of Selan.
C.    IPL has been bought over by JIT SUN, Singapore and promoter’s stake is nearly 70%.
D.    Crude prices have started recovering which bodes well for IPL and it can be a potential take over target.

Background:
Incorporated in 1993, IPL is engaged in the business of Oil & Gas Exploration activities.  Following the opening up of Hydro Carbon Sector by Government of India to attract private investment, IPL was amongst the first few private sector companies to be awarded the rights to develop Baola Field in Gujarat.  Production Sharing Contract for Baola was signed in 1995.  This was followed, in 2001, by award and signing of PSE for Modhera Field, also located in Gujarat. Both the fields are located in the Petroliferous Cambay Basin which has excellent infrastructure and are in close proximity to the local market for Oil & Gas.

Baola Field has 2 wells (Baola 1 and Baola 5).  Upon grant of permission to produce in 2001, IPL started production of gas @ 12000 Standard Cubic Meter from Baola Well 1 and supplied gas to the consumers in the local area.  Mining lease for the field was granted in 2004. However, production had to be suspended due to ingress of water in the well by end of 2004.

Financial Performance: Rs. In Crs.

	2008 – 2009	2007 – 2008
Total Income	0.67	1.22
Net Loss	1.89	1.38
Equity	18.41	8.10
Reserves	6.92

Since production is yet to start, IPL did not had any sales revenues and incurred losses due to expenses made for hiring personnel and creating infrastructure.  However, during the year, Company’s control and management underwent  a big change.  IPL has been bought over by JIT SUN of Singapore, an investment arm of Zurong Group.  New promoters are well known group in oil asset management and have clients like Exxon and Chevron in West and China Petroleum in the East.  Oil fields of IPL are adjacent to HOEC and have potential of 12,000 BOPD from each block which will be significantly higher than HOEL.  JIT SUN hold 69.77% Equity of IPL (through preferential offer and open market offer).

Future Outlook:
1.    Modhera Oil Field:  New Management has obtained mining lease for Modhera Oil Field which is also located in the same Cambay Basin as Baola Field, the production sharing agreement for which was signed in the Year 2001 and has taken over the field in February 2009.  IPL has decided to develop Modhera Field by acquiring Seismic data and drilling new wells.  Production from Modhera Field is expected to start in 2011.

2.    Baola Field:  ONGC had dug 6 wells in this field of which 2 wells were operational till 4 years ago.  Subsequently, production had stopped due to water ingress.  IPL has decided to acquire fresh Seismic data for Baola Field which is expected by November 2009.  Results of Seismic data will enable IPL to locate and drill new wells in the fields subsequently.  Production from the same should start in 2010-11.  GSPL and GAIL have already come forward with offers to lift the gas once field becomes operational.

IPL was also awarded one small block in NELP VII Round but Company decided to focus and develop existing assets and did not sign PSE for this block.

Valuations and Recommendation:
IPL’s Operations will start generating revenues only from 2010-11.  However, scrip appears a good buy for medium and long term considering the following:

1.  Crude prices are unlikely to come down and may rather go up due to recovery of global economy.  Hence, IPL should have huge profit margins in 2011 and beyond.

2.   New promoters hold 69.77% stake.

3.   In 2008-09, HOEL had revenues of just Rs. 98 crs. but market cap is Rs. 4200 crs.  Similarly, Selan has market cap of Rs. 420 crs. although revenues are under 100 crs. On the other hand, IPL market cap is just Rs. 66 crs. despite the fact that its Oil fields are adjacent/next to HOEL and IPL Oil Fields may have much much higher/bigger oil reserves.  New promoters have started working in the right earnest and aggressively.

4.   Mr. Bora (Ex-CMD of ONGC) has become Chairman of IPLunder whose leadership IPL can reach new heights.

Once Seismic data are received and drilling for wells starts in early 2010, share price of IPL can witness huge jump.  There are rumours in the market that IPL may become acquisition target by a big Industrial House.  Investors with patience having medium/long term perspective can buy big quantity for multibagger gains.

Share price can be Rs. 60-70 in 6-9 months.  Don’t be surprised if scrip crosses Rs. 200/- in 2011.

Banking: The Next Crises & The Ignorance of the Economic Establishment

Rajib Handa

In over six decades post India’s independence from the British I never recall Repo rates dropping down to 2 per cent and peak rates on 5 year unsecured bank deposits to 7 per cent. Compared to a CPI of 12 per cent banks are now offering negative returns of 5 per cent per annum to depositors, while throwing money at near bankrupt Real Estate concerns at artificially induced low interest rates. The CAPM pricing theory propounded by Nobel laureates Muller and Modigliani professed that the only difference between debt and equity was the tax. So why do investors expect ROEs of 20 per cent on Equity but are willing to settle for 2 per cent income on deposits? If this is not laying the seeds of a gargantuan Real Estate Asset Bubble and everything else connected with it, then what else is it? The repercussions of easy money will be felt over a number of years, but the disaster will strike investors in many forms. So Brace yourself up. It’s easy to understand how loose monetary policy causes inflation and/or speculative bubbles. But the economic establishment in Washington, on Wall Street, and more or less all over the world refuses to acknowledge the cause and effect relationship! They insist on Keynesian theories of macro managing the economy mainly by monetary and fiscal policies, thereby rapidly increasing the government’s influence. Their models and theories totally missed the importance of the real estate bubble and its aftermath … the most severe crisis since the Great Depression. And they were incapable of forecasting the meltdown of the banking system. It should be clear that following the wrong models and theories leads to the wrong conclusions and wrong policies. And that’s exactly what’s going on today. The policy prescriptions since this crisis erupted are the very same that laid the foundation for the real estate bubble. So the toxin that caused the crisis is being given as the antidote! This has led to a postponement of the next stage of the current crisis. Yet if governments keep throwing trillions down these rat holes, we’ll end up with a financial and economic catastrophe much larger than the current one. So although I suggest you take a bullish medium-term view, you should remain very bearish about the long-term. Remember … Secular Bear Markets Consist of Cyclical Swings I believe that the stock market and the economy entered a secular bear market in 2000 when the technology bubble burst. The first recession took place in 2001, and the first cyclical stock bear market ran from 2000 until 2002/03. That’s when governments all over the world implemented extremely easy monetary and fiscal policies. Their strategy worked … the recession stopped in its tracks. But it came at a very high price … starting a real estate bubble. This artificial and unsound boom lasted until 2007. Then the bubble burst and all hell broke loose! And the second recession and the second cyclical stock bear market began. Again governments stepped in, but to a much larger degree than in 2001-2004. And, for now at least, they’ve rescued the banking system by bailing out nearly all big banks and initiated a medium-term uptrend in the world’s stock markets. The long-term analysis is simple and easy: With each round of counter crisis policy, governments are upping the ante. So each crisis is getting more expensive and more damaging than its predecessor. The severity of the 2007/08 crisis should make it clear what an even worse version could look like: The total collapse of the banking system and of the world’s dollar-based financial system, probably including the bankruptcy of some states. Even hyperinflation seems to be a probable outcome of these policies.

Indian Bank: The Dark Horse

While many medium-sized banks are struggling, Indian Bank has robust fundamentals

Beta 1.0 Institutional Holding 15.8% Dividend Yield 3.8% CMP Rs 129 Current Mkt Cap Rs 5,542 cr Current P/E 4.8
 It is also one of the best-managed staterun banks in India. Its performance in the last three years, since it absorbed all its accumulated losses in its capital, is at par with best in its industry. Investors are advised to consider it for long-term investment.
BUSINESS
Headquarted in Chennai, Indian Bank is a leading bank in South India with widespread presence in Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh and Pondicherry. It was nationalised in 1969. It is a medium-sized bank and its balance sheet size stood at Rs 84,122 crore in FY 2009. It has 1,642 branches.
    In the current decade, the bank has seen a turn-around. At the end of March 2000, bad loans, or net non-performing assets, formed 16% of Indian bank’s net advances. In FY06 it absorbed all the losses in its capital, which fell to Rs 744 crore from Rs 4,574 crore in the previous year. Since then, Indian Bank’s profit has grown at compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 35% every year, while its balance sheet has grown at a CAGR of 21%. This shows that it has enough reach and scale to leverage.
GROWTH DRIVERS
Indian Bank’s performance is clearly a cut above most state-run banks, notorious for inconsistent performance that puts down investors. The bank has performed well on all quality parameters while maintaining an impressive growth rate, achieving a delicate balance that has eluded several of its peers.
    For instance, its net interest margin (NIM) stood at more than 3.5% in last six financial years. The only banks, which can better Indian Bank on this count are Kotak Mahindra Bank, Federal Bank and HDFC Bank. Its return on assets (RoA), at 1.6% in FY 2009, was the highest across all banks.
    Its bad loans formed less than 0.2% of its net advances at the end of the year. Only Punjab National Bank has better record than Indian Bank on this count. The composition of its lending portfolio is very much on the lines of other state-run banks: agriculture loans constituted 15%, SME loan formed 11% and corporate sector contributed 50% to total loan book.
    That the bank’s performance is superior despite similar lending profile shows the efforts being put in to choose the customers. The bank is expanding its presence. It opened 101 new branches in FY 2009.
VALUATION
Indian Bank is trading at a price to earning (P/E) multiple of 4.8 times. This is lower than the average of smaller banks that are no match to it in performance.
    This indicates that the stock market is not giving premium to its performance. Moreover, the earnings growth is far ahead of P/E, which shows that the possibility of rise in stock price is much higher. In terms of price-to-book value P/BV), the stock is trading at close to 1, which is the average at which other banks are trading. Even based on P/BV, the bank is not getting the premium it deserves in terms of valuations.
    We think it will be re-rated some time in future and therefore advise long-term investors to buy the stock at current levels.

8 key ratios to spot the right stocks

It’s a very common dilemma for first time stock buyers. You want to invest in ’safe’ stocks yet have no idea about the process involved. Should you trust your broker? Or should you trust the markets analysts. And at the end of the day you are left confused by the myriad of opinions and advices that are thrown at you.

Instead, why not understand the parameters yourself so that you can make the best choice? To help you understand the intricate art of choosing the best stocks to invest in, here are eight key ratios. Read on, understand…and happy investing!

Ploughback/reserves: Every year, a company divides its net profit (profit left after subtracting various expenses including taxes) in two portions: ploughback and dividends. While dividends are handed out to the shareholders, ploughback is kept by the company for its future use and is included in its reserves.

Ploughback is essential because besides boosting the company’s reserves, it is a source of funds for the company’s expansion plans. Hence if you are looking for a company with good growth prospects, check its ploughback figures.

Reserves are also known as shareholders’ funds, since they belong to the shareholders. If a company’s reserves are twice its equity capital it can then reward its shareholders with a generous bonus. Also any increase in reserves will push the share price of your share.

Book value per share: This ratio shows the worth of each share of a company as per the company’s accounting books. It is calculated as:

Book Value per share = Shareholders’ funds / Total quantity of equity shares issued

Shareholders’ funds can be computed by subtracting the total liabilities (money owed to creditors) of the company from its total assets. It can also be calculated by adding the equity capital to the company’s reserves.

Book value is an old record that uses the original purchase prices of the assets. However it doesn’t show the present market price of the company’s assets. As a result, this ratio has a restricted use when it comes to estimating the market price of the shares, but can give you an estimate of the minimum price of the company’s shares. It will also help you judge if the share price is overpriced or under-priced.

Earnings per share (EPS): One of the most popular investment ratios, it can be computed as:

Earnings Per Share (EPS) = Profit Post Tax / Total quantity of equity shares issued

This ratio computes the company’s earnings on a per share basis. E.g. you own 100 shares of ABC Co., each having a face value of Rs 10.

Assume the earnings per share is Rs 10 and the dividend declared is 30 per cent, or Rs 3 per share. This implies that on every share of ABC Co, you earn Rs. 6 each year, but you actually get Rs 3 via dividend. The balance of Rs 4 per share goes into the ploughback (retained earnings). Had you purchased these shares at par, it implies a return of 60 per cent.

This example shows that instead of looking at the dividends received from to company as the base of investment returns, always look at earnings per share, as it is the actual indicator of the returns earned by your shares.

Price earnings ratio (P/E): This ratio highlights the connection between the market price of a share and its EPS.

Price/Earnings Ratio (P/E) = Price of the share / Earnings per share

It shows the degree to which earnings of a share are protected by its price. E.g. if the P/E is 40, it means the share price is 40 times its earnings. So if the company’s EPS is constant, it will need about 40 years to make up for the purchase price of the share, after taking into account the dividends and the capital appreciation. Hence low P/E means you will recover your money quickly.

P/E ratio shows what the market thinks about the earnings potential and future business forecast of a company. Companies with high P/E ratios are the darlings of the investors and thus enjoy a higher market rating.

In order to use the P/E ratio properly, take into account the future earnings and growth projections of the company. If the current P/E ratio is low, as against the future prospects of a company, then the shares make an attractive investment option.

But if the company is saddled with losses and falling sales, stay away from it, despite the low P/E ratio.

Dividend & yield: Dividend is the portion of the profit that is distributed amongst shareholders. Companies offering high dividends, normally don’t have much of growth to talk about.

This is because the ploughback required to finance future development is insufficient. Similarly, those companies in high growth sector don’t give any dividend. Instead here they give sharp capital appreciation, which ultimately will lead to higher dividends.

So it makes much more sense to invest for capital appreciation instead of dividends. Rather it makes more sense to invest for yield, which is nothing but the association between the dividends and the market price of the shares. Yield (dividend yield) can be calculated as:

Yield = (Dividend per share / market price of a share) x 100

Yield shows the returns in percentage that you can expect via dividends earned by your investment at the current market price. It is more useful than simply focusing on the dividends.

Return on capital employed (ROCE): ROCE is the ratio that is calculated as:

ROCE: Operating profit / capital employed (net value + debt)

To get operating profit, add old taxes paid, depreciation, special one-off expenses, and special one-off income and miscellaneous income to get the net profit. The operating profit is a far better indicator of the profits earned by the company instead of the net profit.

Hence this ratio is the better indicator of the general performance of the company and the company’s operational efficiency. It is one of the most useful ratio that lets you compare amongst the companies.

Return on net worth (RONW): RONW is calculated as

RONW = Net Profit / Net Worth

This ratio gives you an idea of the returns generated by investing in the company. While ROCE is an effective measure to get a general overview of the profitability of the company’s business operations, RONW lets you gauge the returns you can earn on your investment.

When used along with ROCE, you get an overview of the company’s competence, financial standing and its capacity to generate returns on shareholders’ finances and capital employed.

PEG ratio: PEG is an essential and extensively used ratio for calculating the inbuilt worth of a share. It helps you decide whether the share is under-priced, totally priced or overpriced.

To derive the ratio, you have to associate the P/E ratio with the expected growth rate of the company. It assumes that higher the growth rate of the company, higher the P/E ratio of the company’s shares. Vice versa also holds true.

PEG = P/E / expected growth rate of the EPS of the company

In general, a PEG lesser than 0.5 is a lucrative investment opportunity. However if the PEG exceeds 1.5, it is time to sell.

These are some of the most critical ratios that must be considered when purchasing a share. Extensive reading of the financial performance of the company in newspapers and magazines will help you get all the relevant information to get the correct decision

Funds shuffle scrips as Nifty floats

The shift in S&P CNX Nifty, the favourite index of numerous investment schemes both at home and abroad, to a new system of computation is likely to get the fund managers busy this week.
The index, which is a benchmark for at least 73 equity diversified schemes of Indian mutual funds, is going for a major change in its composition.
The National Stock Exchange’s flagship index will shift to free-float capitalisation method from June 26.
Under the method, the weightage of each of the 50 component stocks in the index will be proportionate to the amount of free float.
Free float is the number of shares of a company in public hands — stock that is “floating free”, that which is not with the promoters.
Globally, most indices are moving to this system as it is perceived to be more representative of market action.
Experts say, with the new system coming into vogue, funds would need to adjust their portfolios accordingly.
“Managers who are tracking the Nifty closely, may have to make allocation changes. People who are mirroring the index should make bigger changes,” said Deepak Mohoni, MD, www.trendwatchindia.com.
Benchmark indices are important to two broad kinds of investment schemes: ones that track market indexes (index funds) and funds whose managers choose securities to buy and sell (actively managed funds).
While index funds mirror the index components, active funds operate on a relative return basis, wherein performance of the fund is judged by comparing it to the performance of the benchmark.
Some of the action is already visible in the prices. Stocks which are bound to lose weightage post this reorganisation, especially the PSUs, are out of favour.
“A significant portion of the adjustment has already played out and one can see the result of that in the fall of NTPC and ONGC and the outperformance of L&T and private banks,” said Anand Shah, head of equities at Canara Robeco MF.
While Reliance Industries will retain its position as the top-weighted stock due to its high free-float component (50%), ONGC and NTPC are likely to lose weightage.
Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) has the second-highest weightage (8% )in the Nifty under the Total M-cap regime. This is bound to come down to 3.5%.
Similarly, the index weight of National Thermal Power Corporation will drop from 6% to 1.9%.
The reverse will also be true as some stocks such as Infosys will have a high free-float gain at the expense of these.
The weightage of Infosys, currently at 3.77% in the Nifty, will increase to 7%. So an index fund will appropriately double its holding of Infy shares.
ICICI Bank will increase its weightage from 2.96% to 6.45%, while Larsen & Toubro goes from 3.27% to 6.41%.
Some absolute-return products based on the index and long-term players like insurance companies who tend to mirror the index would go for shuffling of portfolios, said fund managers.
“Arbitrage funds and structured products, which track the Nifty, would also see some changes made. The majority of the action would take place on June 26 for index funds,” said Gopal Agarwal, head of equity at Mirae Asset Global Investments.
Jayesh Shroff, fund manager at SBI Mutual Fund, said, insurance companies and the funds managed by them are more likely to be affected by such a change.
“As far as they are concerned, it would already have started,” said Shroff.
The effect on the broader will be very short-term, feel experts.
A Balasubramanian, CIO of Birla Sun Life Mutual Fund, said there might be some minor changes in the portfolios of schemes. “A fund manager will change his scheme’s holdings on the basis of valuation rather than events such as these,” Balasubramanian believes.

Small is beautiful… but can be risky too

Be it the world of cars or the stock market, “small” appears to be in vogue. In the equity rally that began early March this year, stocks in the mid- and small-cap space have delivered returns that trounce those of their large-cap competitors.

Wondering what makes these stocks so attractive? Well, it is their high-risk and high-return positioning that charms the most, though their low valuation also appeals to certain investors. Read on to understand why small- and mid-cap stocks, believed to be multi-baggers in the making, come bundled with higher risks.

Market capitalisation, an indicator of the value placed on a company by the market at that day’s price, is a product of its market price and outstanding number of shares.

While there’s no clear-cut demarcation to differentiate the stocks based on their market capitalisation, given the dynamism of the equity markets, it can be assumed that stocks with market cap less than Rs 2,000 crore fall in the small-cap category, while those above Rs 7,500 crore are of the large-cap genre. The ones that fall in the middle zone are the mid-caps.

 

Large caps – few surprises

 

 

Large-cap stocks enjoy a large scale of operations; have established business model and hence have lower uncertainty in business. Besides, analysts, fund managers and investors alike, closely monitor these stocks. So, while the risks associated with investing in large-cap stocks are known, their likely returns aren’t unknown either.

This makes large-cap investing safer and more suitable for investors who have little stomach to relish uncertainties in investing. This is also why large-cap stocks are most sought after during periods of uncertainty in the markets. But on the other hand, investing in small and mid-cap stocks comes with higher risks, given their lower scales of operation.

While some of the companies in this cadre are still far from establishing their businesses, others are relatively new in their sector — which makes predicting their future revenues tougher. But it is precisely this heightened business risk that sweetens their return potential significantly.

History has it that multi-baggers in most equity rallies are, more often than not, stocks from the mid- and small-cap category only. It is then no surprise that the current rally too saw the small- and mid-cap stocks return higher.

When benchmarked on their year-to-date returns, the mid- and small cap stocks have scored a stellar 80 per cent and 85 per cent returns, while the BSE Sensex gained by 60 per cent.

High risk, high return

 

 

The desire to invest in smaller companies comes, from their ability to return higher. Sidelined by analysts and investors and weighed down by the higher degree of earnings risk, these stocks do not command the valuations that larger companies usually do in the stock markets.

For instance, while a large diversified company such as L&T commands a consolidated valuation of about 25 times currently, smaller ones such as McNally Bharat or Shriram EPC, which are in similar lines of business, enjoy a lower value. Why? While L&T has a wider business presence, large clientele and stable earnings outlook, the smaller ones compare less favourably with it on almost all these counts.

However, with the economy beginning to revive and credit availability easing up, investing in smaller companies may hold higher returns potential, with the advantage of a low base.

Not only do these companies hold the potential to grow at a higher pace; their earnings growth cannot also be easily replicated by their large cap peers either.

For instance, while net profits of Yes Bank have grown at a compounded rate of 53 per cent over the last three years, that of ICICI Bank has grown at about 10 per cent only.

It is this ability to scale high earnings growth that fuelled the recent rally in the mid- and small-cap space, once it became clear that the economy was beginning to get back into shape. For instance, between the cement major ACC and its smaller peers Dalmia Cements and Shree Cements, the stock performance of the latter two was way better in the run-up since January. While ACC delivered 68 per cent returns, the other two stocks registered 82 per cent and 131 per cent returns, respectively.

The trend was similar among stocks in other sectors such as FMCG and IT too. Infosys’ 38 per cent return since January appeared trifle when compared with the triple-digit gains recorded by mid-caps MindTree (117 per cent) and Hexaware (149 per cent).

Earnings trap

 

 

But if investing in small- and mid-cap stocks appears exciting, don’t turn a blind eye towards their earnings. While it is natural to get carried away by the seemingly low valuations, remember that they do so for a reason.

If the probability of these stocks to more than double their earnings is high, the probability of their non-performance is also equally high. Since their businesses are at a nascent stage, their earnings are highly vulnerable to a downturn. In 2008, a year mired with recessionary trends, the BSE Sensex declined by 53 per cent. But the mid-cap and the small-cap indices declined more, by over 67 per cent and 72 per cent, respectively.

This may explain why ACC trades at 13 times, while Dalmia Cements or Shree Cements trades lower at eight times and seven times. Here again, while the mid-caps are somewhat better off, it is their still smaller peers that become unpredictable during uncertain times.

Besides earnings risk, investing in small-cap stocks also bundles with it liquidity risk and higher impact costs. And since most small stocks sport a high promoter holding, the promoters’ credibility also becomes pivotal in determining the fate of your investments.

Taj Mahal… the real story.

No one has ever challenged it except Prof. P. N. Oak, who believes the whole world has been duped. In his book Taj Mahal: The True Story, Oak says The Taj Mahal is not Queen Mumtaz’s tomb but an ancient Hindu temple palace of Lord Shiva (then known as Tejo Mahalaya ) .

In the course of his research OAK discovered that the Shiva temple palace was usurped by Shah Jahan from then Maharaja of Jaipur, Jai Singh.

In his own court chronicle, Badshahnama, Shah Jahan admits that an exceptionally beautiful grand mansion in Agra was taken from Jai SIngh for Mumtaz’s burial . The ex-Maharaja of Jaipur still retains in his secret collection two orders from Shah Jahan for surrendering the Taj building. Using captured temples and mansions, as a burial place for Dead courtiers and royalty was a common practice among Muslim rulers. For example, Humayun,Akbar, Etmud-ud-Daula and Safdarjung are all buried in such mansions.

Oak’s inquiries began with the name of Taj Mahal. He says the term ” Mahal ” has never been used for a building in any Muslim countries from Afghanisthan to Algeria . “The unusual explanation that the term Taj Mahal derives from Mumtaz Mahal was illogical in atleast two respects.

Firstly, her name was never Mumtaz Mahal but Mumtaz-ul-Zamani,” he writes.

Secondly, one cannot omit the first three letters ‘Mum’ from a woman’s name to derive the remainder as the name for the building. “Taj Mahal, he claims, is a corrupt version of Tejo Mahalaya, or Lord Shiva’s Palace .

Oak also says the love story of Mumtaz and Shah Jahan is a fairy tale created by Court sycophants, blundering historians and sloppy archaeologists.

Not a Single royal chronicle of Shah Jahan’s time corroborates the love story.

Furthermore, Oak cites several documents suggesting the Taj Mahal predates Shah Jahan’s era, and was a temple dedicated to Shiva, worshipped by Rajputs of Agra city.

For example, Prof. Marvin Miller of New York took a Few Samples from the riverside doorway of the Taj. Carbon dating tests revealed that the door was 300 years older than Shah Jahan.

European traveler Johan Albert Mandelslo,who visited Agra in 1638 (only seven years after Mumtaz’s Death), describes the life of the city in his memoirs. But he makes no reference to the Taj Mahal being built.

The writings of Peter Mundy, an English visitor to Agra within a year of Mumtaz’s death, also suggest the Taj was a noteworthy building well before Shah Jahan’s time.

Prof. Oak points out a number of design and architectural inconsistencies that support the belief of the Taj Mahal being a typical Hindu temple Rather Than a mausoleum.

Many rooms in the Taj  Mahal have remained sealed Since Shah Jahan’s time and are still inaccessible to the public . Oak asserts they contain a headless statue of Lord Shiva and other objects commonly used for worship rituals in Hindu temples .

Fearing political Backlash, Indira Gandhi’s government tried to have Prof. Oak’s book Withdrawn from the bookstores, and threatened the Indian publisher of the first edition dire consequences . There is only one way to discredit or validate Oak’s research. The current government should open the sealed rooms of the Taj Mahal under U.N. supervision, and let international experts investigate.

The recession has ended….

If you want a bone to pick–or an economic argument to have–it should be about when the current recession actually began. The National Bureau of Economic Research, the U.S.’s semi-official recession arbiter, says it started in December 2007. But real gross domestic product grew at a 1% annual rate from then through August 2008. That doesn’t look like a recession to us.

Nonetheless, when Lehman Brothers collapsed and the $700-billion TARP plan was proposed, a very rare “panic” ensued. Monetary velocity collapsed. From September 2008 through March 2009, the economy shrank at a rate of 5.5%. That’s why we think the recession started in September 2008, not in December 2007.

Once the “real” recession started–the one that began in September–we consistently forecast it would be over by mid-2009, earlier than many (including the Federal Reserve) predicted. Now it looks like our V-shaped recovery is underway. When the NBER eventually gets around to declaring the recession end date, we think it will be May 2009.

New claims for unemployment insurance are probably the very best single indicator of the end of a recession. The monthly average for claims normally peaks one or two months before the economy bottoms–and it appears to have peaked in March, at 658,000, versus April’s 635,000.

Also, given that the September recession was marked by consumer spending falling off a cliff, we look at this measure to signal a rebound. Consumer spending grew at a 2.2% annual rate in the first quarter, and it looks set to rise again in the second quarter. Meanwhile, both major measures of consumer confidence (from The Conference Board and University of Michigan) shot upward in April.

The housing market is also showing nascent signs of life. New home sales bottomed in January at a 331,000 annual rate, but the pace of sales in February/March averaged 357,000. After falling 80% from January 2006 to January 2009, the rate of construction of single-family homes has remained essentially unchanged for the past two months, although (thankfully) it is at a level where builders are still rapidly cutting into excess inventories. In all likelihood, a bottom has been reached for both home sales and housing starts.

On the trade front, companies are increasingly willing to do business across borders. Inbound and outbound container traffic is up, at both the port of Los Angeles and the port of Long Beach. This is also a signal that credit conditions are easing, as international trade tends to be more credit-sensitive than domestic commerce.

Other signs of a rebound in monetary velocity can be found in prices. Consumer prices fell at a 12.4% annual rate in the last three months of 2008, the fastest decline since the Great Depression. In the first three months of 2009, however, prices are up at a 2.2% annual rate.

Meanwhile, commodity prices bottomed in February, signaling that the economy has turned a corner. In addition, Treasury bond yields are on the rise despite direct purchases by the Federal Reserve–an indicator that real interest rates have bottomed.

Add to all these signs April’s month-to-month jump in the ISM Manufacturing Index–the second largest in the last decade–and recent sharp increases in the Chicago PMI, the Philadelphia Fed Index and the Richmond Fed Index. All show the manufacturing recession is rapidly losing steam.

The end of the recession does not mean we won’t lose more jobs; employment is always a lagging indicator. And there will be more defaults, foreclosures and financial market problems too. But none of these are leading indicators.

In our view, there are no more shoes to drop.

A banana can change your life !!!!!

After Reading THIS, you’ll NEVER look at a banana in the same way again!

Bananas Containing three natural sugars – sucrose, fructose and glucose combined with fiber, a banana gives an instant, sustained and substantial boost of energy. Research has proven that just two bananas provide enough energy for a strenuous 90-minute workout. No wonder the banana is the number one fruit with the world’s leading athletes But energy isn’t the only way a banana can help us keep fit. It can also help overcome or prevent a substantial number of illnesses and conditions, making it a must to add to our daily diet.

Depression: According to a recent survey undertaken by MIND amongst people suffering from depression, many felt much better after eating a banana. This is because bananas contain tryptophan, a type of protein that the body converts into serotonin, known to make you relax, improve your mood and generally make you feel happier.

PMS: Forget the pills — eat a banana. The vitamin B6 it contains regulates blood glucose levels, which can affect your mood.

Anemia: High in iron, bananas can stimulate the production of hemoglobin in the blood and so helps in cases of anemia.

Blood Pressure: This unique tropical fruit is extremely high in potassium yet low in salt, making it the perfect way to beat blood pressure. So much so, the US Food and Drug Administration has just allowed the banana industry to make official claims for the fruit’s ability to reduce the risk of blood pressure and stroke.

Brain Power: 200 students at a Twickenham school were helped through their exams this year by eating bananas at breakfast, break, and lunch in a bid to boost their brain power. Research has shown that the potassium-packed fruit can assist learning by making pupils more alert.

Constipation: High in fiber, including bananas in the diet can help restore normal bowel action, helping to overcome the problem without resorting to laxatives.

Hangovers: One of the quickest ways of curing a hangover is to make a banana milkshake, sweetened with honey. The banana calms the stomach and, with the help of the honey, builds up depleted blood sugar levels, while the milk soothes and re-hydrates your system.

Heartburn: >Bananas have a natural antacid effect in the body, so if you suffer from heartburn, try eating a banana for soothing relief.

Morning Sickness: Snacking on bananas between meals helps to keep blood sugar levels up and avoid morning sickness.

Mosquito bites: Before reaching for the insect bite cream, try rubbing the affected area with the inside of a banana skin. Many people find it amazingly successful at reducing swelling and irritation.

Nerves: Bananas are high in B vitamins that help calm the nervous system.

Overweight and at work? Studies at the Institute of Psychology in Austria found pressure at work leads to gorging on comfort food like chocolate and chips. Looking at 5,000 hospital patients, researchers found the most obese were more likely to be in high-pressure jobs. The report concluded that, to avoid panic-induced food cravings, we need to control our blood sugar levels by snacking on high carbohydrate foods every two hours to keep levels steady.

Ulcers: The banana is used as the dietary food against intestinal disorders because of its soft texture and smoothness. It is the only raw fruit that can be eaten without distress in over-chronicler cases. It also neutralizes over-acidity and reduces irritation by coating the lining of the stomach.

Temperature control: Many other cultures see bananas as a “cooling” fruit that can lower both the physical and emotional temperature of expectant mothers. In Thailand , for example, pregnant women eat bananas to ensure their baby is born with a cool temperature

Seasonal Affective Disorder (SAD): Bananas can help SAD sufferers because they contain the natural mood enhancer tryptophan. > >Smoking: >Bananas can also help people trying to give up smoking. The B6, B12 they contain, as well as the potassium and magnesium found in them, help the body recover from the effects of nicotine withdrawal.

Stress: Potassium is a vital mineral, which helps normalize the heartbeat, sends oxygen to the brain and regulates your body’s water balance. When we are stressed, our metabolic rate rises, thereby reducing our potassium levels. These can be rebalanced with the help of a high-potassium banana snack

Strokes: According to research in “The New England Journal of Medicine,” eating bananas as part of a regular diet can cut the risk of death by strokes by as much as 40%!

So, a banana really is a natural remedy for many ills. When you compare it to an apple, it has four times the protein, twice the carbohydrates, three times the phosphorus, five times the vitamin A and iron, and twice the other vitamins and minerals. It is also rich in potassium and is one of the best value foods around. So maybe its time to change that well-known phrase so that we say, “A banana a day keeps the doctor away!”